Population growth drastic decline
According to a set of World Bank data, from 1960 to 2022, China’s birth rate increased from 21 per 1,000 people to a peak of 43 in 1963 and population hit the peak at 2024 in total 14.1billion.However, while the population was rapidly increasing, the birth rate was also rapidly declining. After the implementation of family planning policies,birth rate dropping from 43 per 1000 people in 1963 to just 7 per 1000 in 2022.the birth rate steadily declined. Experience some small peaks in 2012, 2014, and 2016, there was a sharp drop, leading to a dramatic decline in population growth.
The reasons for this situation are very complex. One major factor is the family planning policy, which has led to a significant loss of the natural population in China over several decades. Additionally, cultural traditions favoring sons have resulted in many female infants being aborted through prenatal examinations like ultrasounds, causing an imbalance in the population structure amid explosive and unchecked growth.
With societal development and the real estate bubble, while large capital continues to grow indefinitely, it is unwilling to assume its social responsibilities. Job opportunities are decreasing, and wage increases are lagging behind inflation, resulting in a steady decline in real purchasing power over the past twenty years. Considering the high housing prices, the working class can no longer afford the costs of having children. Even though the family planning policy is effectively defunct, a large portion of the working population has lost the enthusiasm for childbirth.
Many young people hold the view that it is already difficult to support themselves and do not wish to pass on their hardships to the next generation. Especially in the context of economic recession and rising unemployment rates, the trend of population decline has become irreversible. The root cause lies in extreme social inequality, where a small number of party officials and their affiliated interest groups take most of the profits, while the working class struggles around the subsistence line.
Although some individuals have benefited from the internet revolution, the majority of Chinese society has not shared in the gains. As a popular saying goes, “You didn’t bring me along when enjoying, but you thought of me when sharing the debt.” Consequently, apart from a small number of high-tech workers, most young people have entered a state of “lying flat,” feeling completely hopeless about the future.
Compare to Japan
Different to China, Japan’s population development trend shows a relatively stable decline. Starting in 1947, following World War II, Japan experienced explosive population growth, marked by a baby boom. By 1949, this growth reached its peak, after which the birth rate began to gradually decline. By 2024, Japan’s birth rate is projected to hit a historic low of just 6.995 per 1000 people.The total population has decreased from a peak of 128 million in 2008 to 124 million in 2024.
It may not seem obvious at first glance, but Japan’s post-war population growth rate was almost as fast as China’s. However, it’s important to note the significant difference in population bases. In 1960, China had 667 million people, while Japan had only 93 million. China experienced what was called the “Three Years of Natural Disasters” between 1959 and 1961, which in reality was a man-made famine, leading to a sharp population decline during these three years, and a drop in birth rates. Interestingly, Japan also saw a significant drop in birth rates in 1966. Some scholars believe this was related to a superstition in Japanese culture that girls born in this year would bring bad luck to their husbands. A more official explanation points to the Japanese government’s push in the 1960s for women’s education and employment, which gradually changed the tradition of early marriage, combined with urbanization that put pressure on Japanese couples to raise multiple children. If you compare the population growth rates and total population increases of China and Japan side by side, the differences become strikingly clear.
Comparation
While both Japan and China aimed to control population growth, Japan did so through a non-coercive approach, promoting quality childbirth and child-rearing with the government playing a leading role. The Japanese government collaborated with non-governmental organizations, midwives, healthcare professionals in maternal and child services, and academic institutions to achieve these goals in an orderly manner. In contrast, China’s government enforced strict policies, issuing slogans and setting rigid targets for local government personnel to achieve. This led to extreme actions, such as the shocking “Hundred Days No Children” campaign in Guan County and Shen County in Shandong Province. If families were found to have more children than allowed, they were either fined heavily or, in severe cases, lost their jobs. This was essentially a test of obedience, similar in nature to the Qing Dynasty’s Manchu rulers’ infamous edict: “Keep your head but lose your hair, or keep your hair but lose your head.” Meanwhile, genuine experts advocating for quality childbirth and child-rearing were sidelined.
The enforcement of the one-child policy not only disrupted the natural development of the population and harmed the demographic structure but also planted the seeds of disaster for the future. As a result, during the current economic downturn, despite the government’s loud proclamations, few are willing to have one more children. The absurdity of the one-child policy and the Communist government’s shirking of responsibility can be seen in their shifting propaganda slogans over the years:
In 1985: “Only one child is good; the government will take care of the elderly.”
In 1995: “Only one child is good; the government will help care for the elderly.”
In 2005: “You can’t rely on the government for elderly care.”
In 2012: “Postponing retirement is good; take care of your own elderly.”
In 2015: “The two-child policy is now open.”
In 2021: “A couple can now have three children.”
Source:
[1]Japan’s experiences in public health and medical systems: Towards Improving Public Health and Medical Systems in Developing Countries. (2005).
[2]马瀛通.中国人口控制效果差异显著的三个10年[J].中国人口科学,2002:3-11.
